Gold has experienced a remarkable rise in recent years—and according to JPMorgan, the rally is far from over. Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, stated in a May 7 interview with Bloomberg Television that gold could climb to over $4,000 per ounce by the summer of 2026, assuming continued growth in both the U.S. and global economies. At the beginning of the year, the investment bank had already set a price target of $3,500—“which we’ve just surpassed,” Peters noted. “Looking ahead over the next 12 months, we see $4,000 per ounce as a realistic new target.” As of May 12, 2025, gold was trading at approximately $3,237 per ounce.
A major factor behind this upward trend is sustained demand from central banks in emerging markets, alongside growing interest from institutional and private investors in gold-backed ETFs. Compared to their counterparts in developed countries, many central banks in emerging economies still have room to expand their gold reserves, creating additional upward momentum for the precious metal.
JPMorgan Remains Bullish on Gold Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Beyond strong fundamental demand, geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a critical role in gold’s continued appeal, particularly regarding U.S. economic policy and the country’s relationship with China. Peters highlighted that expectations around a potential trade agreement with China are already partially priced into U.S. equity markets. “The big debate now is how much of the current shift in U.S. government policy is cyclical versus structural,” she explained.
In this context of uncertainty, diversification becomes even more crucial—and that’s where gold shines. “There are several elements we want to balance,” Peters added. “An overweight in U.S. assets is one, so we’re also looking at geographical and currency diversification, as well as broader regional hedging.” Gold, she emphasized, serves as a strategic tool for diversification—regardless of whether the market is currently betting on positive growth or not.
Interest Rate Cuts and Industrial Demand Could Fuel Another Rally
Monetary policy is also expected to provide additional support for gold in the coming months. Peters anticipates two interest rate cuts this year and another two in 2026, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to around 3.5%. “If growth weakens, the Fed clearly has room for further cuts,” she said, acknowledging that inflation dynamics may limit the Fed’s flexibility. Even so, the overall interest rate outlook should support gold in the medium term, as lower rates increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
In addition to traditional factors such as inflation and safe-haven demand, JPMorgan is also eyeing a potential rise in industrial use of gold. Peters pointed to the technology and jewelry sectors as key areas where demand could grow, especially in a favorable economic environment.